油价时隔三个月终于要跌了，加满一箱或少花3.8元

油价时隔三个月终于要跌了，加满一箱或少花3.8元

Oil prices are finally going to fall after three months, fill up a tank or spend 3.8 yuan less

今日(19日)24时，国内成品油新一轮调价窗口将开启。综合机构预测，本轮调价周期国内成品油价预计将下调。中新经纬注意到，这或将是年内成品油价第四次下调，距上次下调已近三个月，期间油价“四连涨一搁浅”。

At 24:00 today (19th), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Comprehensive agencies predict that domestic refined oil prices are expected to drop in this round of price adjustment cycles. Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that this may be the fourth drop in refined oil prices during the year, and it has been nearly three months since the last drop.

卓创资讯成品油分析师孟鹏表示，进入本计价周期后，一方面原油市场供应短缺仍对油价带来支撑，另一方面市场对美联储加快加息计划抑制通胀、美元汇率走强，美国可能释放战略石油储备等有所担忧，欧美原油期货价格整体呈现出震荡走势，均价较上周期下滑。受此影响，测算的国内原油变化率负值内加深，11月19日24时，国内成品油零售限价将下调。

Meng Peng, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that after entering this pricing cycle, on the one hand, the shortage of supply in the crude oil market will still support oil prices. There are concerns about the strategic oil reserves. The European and American crude oil futures prices have shown a fluctuating trend as a whole, and the average price has declined compared with the previous cycle. Affected by this, the estimated rate of change of domestic crude oil has deepened within the negative value. At 24:00 on November 19, the retail price limit of domestic refined oil will be lowered.

据卓创资讯测算，截至11月17日收盘，国内第9个工作日参考原油变化率为-2.01%，预计汽柴油下调95元/吨，折合升价92号汽油下调0.07元/升，0号柴油下调0.08元/吨。

According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, as of the close of November 17, the reference crude oil change rate for the ninth working day in China is -2.01%. It is estimated that gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 95 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price increase of 92 gasoline and 0.07 yuan/liter, 0 The number of diesel oil is reduced by RMB 0.08/ton.

中宇资讯分析师王涛分析指出，WTI及布伦特原油期货行情见软，市场反复权衡能源短缺现状和美国释放战略储备原油干预市场的可能性，期货周线呈下修整理趋势。

Wang Tao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, pointed out that the WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices have seen softness. The market has repeatedly weighed the status of energy shortages and the possibility of the US releasing strategic reserves of crude oil to intervene in the market. The weekly futures show a downward revision trend.

中宇资讯数据显示，至本轮第10个工作日，中宇原油估价81.853较基准价下调1.425，降幅1.71%，对应成品油降价100元/吨。按一般家用汽车油箱50L容量估测，加满一箱92号汽油将较此前节省3.82元左右。

According to data from Zhongyu Information, by the 10th working day of this round, Zhongyu crude oil valuation was 81.853 down 1.425 from the benchmark price, a decrease of 1.71%, corresponding to a 100 yuan/ton reduction in refined oil prices. According to the estimation of the 50L capacity of the general family car fuel tank, filling a tank of 92# gasoline will save about 3.82 yuan compared with the previous one.

“目前，美方积极督促日、韩、印等石油消费大国释放战略库存协助降低油价。受利空消息影响，国际油市投机做空，近期走势疲软。照目前原油基准价估算，12月3日成品油调价有几率再次下调或搁浅。” 王涛同时称，投放原油战略库存事态敏感，或被国际市场解读为原油供需紧张，存意外炒涨可能。若此类行情出现，可能扭转调价窗口驱使其朝正向运行。

"At present, the United States is actively urging Japan, South Korea, India and other major oil-consuming countries to release strategic stocks to help reduce oil prices. Affected by the bad news, the international oil market is speculative and short, and the recent trend is weak. According to the current crude oil benchmark price estimate, refined oil products will be on December 3 There is a chance that the price adjustment will be lowered again or stranded.” Wang Tao also said that the strategic inventory of crude oil is sensitive to the situation, or it is interpreted by the international market as a tight crude oil supply and demand, and there is a possibility of unexpected speculation. If such a market occurs, it may reverse the price adjustment window and drive it to move in the positive direction.

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