全国人口出生率再创新低，人口专家：负增长可能提前

 

全国人口出生率再创新低，人口专家：负增长可能提前

The national birth rate has reached a new low, population experts: negative growth may be ahead of schedule

全国人口出生率再创新低。近日，《中国统计年鉴2021》中披露，2020年全国人口出生率为8.52‰，首次跌破10‰，而同期人口自然增长率仅为1.45‰。

The national birth rate has reached a new low. Recently, the "China Statistical Yearbook 2021" disclosed that the national birth rate in 2020 was 8.52‰, which fell below 10‰ for the first time, while the natural population growth rate during the same period was only 1.45‰.

持续走低的生育率一直以来都是公众关心的热点话题。

The declining fertility rate has always been a hot topic of public concern.

今年5月，国务院第七次全国人口普查领导小组副组长、国家统计局局长宁吉喆在国新办发布会上介绍，从人口总量上看，虽然我国人口总量增速是放缓的，但仍然保持了平稳增长。同时，普查数据也反映出我国人口发展中面临着一些结构性矛盾，如劳动年龄人口和育龄妇女规模下降，老龄化程度加深，总和生育率下降，出生人口数量走低等。

In May of this year, Ning Jizhe, deputy leader of the Seventh National Census Leading Group of the State Council and Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that from the perspective of the total population, although the growth rate of my country's total population is slowing , But still maintained steady growth. At the same time, the census data also reflects that my country’s population development is facing some structural contradictions, such as the decline in the size of the working-age population and women of childbearing age, the deepening of the aging degree, the decline in the total fertility rate, and the decline in the number of births.

宁吉喆认为，要辩证看待人口变化对经济社会的影响。一是我国人口基数大、人口众多的基本国情没有改变，超大规模国内市场优势将长期存在，人口与资源环境仍将处于紧平衡状态。同时，人口增长放缓，需要采取措施促进人口长期均衡发展。

Ning Jizhe believes that the impact of demographic changes on the economy and society should be viewed dialectically. First, the basic national conditions of my country's large population base and large population have not changed. The super-large-scale domestic market advantage will exist for a long time, and the population and resource environment will remain in a tight balance. At the same time, population growth has slowed down, and measures need to be taken to promote long-term balanced population development.

针对人口问题现状和面临的挑战，中国人口学会副会长、北京大学社会学系教授陆杰华接受中国新闻周刊专访表示，从人口变化的规律来说，应尽量延长人口红利的时间，通过一些制度安排来借鉴其他国家人口负增长所带来的一些成功经验和失败教训，避免走弯路，实现社会经济的可持续发展。

In response to the current demographic issues and challenges, Lu Jiehua, vice president of the Chinese Society of Demography and professor of the Department of Sociology at Peking University, said in an exclusive interview with China News Weekly that from the law of population changes, the time of demographic dividend should be extended as much as possible, and some institutional arrangements should be adopted. To learn from some successful experiences and failure lessons brought about by the negative population growth of other countries, avoid detours, and achieve sustainable social and economic development.

负增长可能提前

Negative growth may advance

中国新闻周刊：《中国统计年鉴2021》披露，2020年全国人口出生率为8.52‰，首次跌破10‰，这个数据意味着什么？

China News Weekly: "China Statistical Yearbook 2021" disclosed that the national birth rate in 2020 will be 8.52‰, falling below 10‰ for the first time. What does this data mean?

陆杰华：应该是新中国成立以来，除了自然灾害那几年，自然增长率最低的，降得比较厉害。过去我们都是正增长，多数年出生率基本都是两位数，现在8.52‰，但是死亡率还在上升呢，因为老年人口比例和规模在逐渐扩大。

Lu Jiehua: Since the founding of New China, except for natural disasters, the natural growth rate has been the lowest in the few years, and the decline has been relatively severe. In the past, we were all positive growth, most of the annual birth rate was basically double-digit, now 8.52‰, but the death rate is still on the rise, because the proportion and scale of the elderly population is gradually expanding.

中国新闻周刊：那意味着接近人口负增长了？

China News Weekly: Does that mean that the population is close to negative growth?

陆杰华：现在数据还是“正”的，自然增长率是1.45‰，2021自然年度还没过去，出生人数和死亡人数的绝对数还没有公布，那就是一个相对数。2019年死亡人口是980多万，但因为人口老龄化，它这个数每年是上升的，去年出生人口是1200万，今年要是低于1000万的话，那就有可能进入负增长。

Lu Jiehua: The data is still "positive". The natural growth rate is 1.45‰. The 2021 natural year has not yet passed. The absolute number of births and deaths has not been announced, and that is a relative number. The number of deaths in 2019 was more than 9.8 million, but due to the aging of the population, this number is rising every year. Last year, the number of births was 12 million. If this year is less than 10 million, it may enter negative growth.

中国新闻周刊：人口负增长的脚步提前了。

China News Weekly: The pace of negative population growth has advanced.

陆杰华：对，快一些。之前是预估2027~2030年才进入负增长，现在如果今年不增长，明年没有回升的话，可能就这两年的事了。

Lu Jiehua: Yes, faster. Previously, it was estimated that it will enter negative growth from 2027 to 2030. Now if there is no growth this year and there is no rebound next year, it may be the past two years.

中国新闻周刊：今年三胎放开了，会起到作用吗？

China News Weekly: Will the three-child release this year be effective?

陆杰华：至少今年没有作用，5月放开，目前还看不出成效来。通过放开三胎来解决人口问题比较难，因为三胎在整个出生人口里占的比重不是特别大，最重要的是一胎二胎，前面放开二胎政策后预期比之前要低，所以放开三胎。

Lu Jiehua: At least it didn't work this year. If it was released in May, there is no effect yet. It is more difficult to solve the population problem by letting go of three children, because the proportion of three children in the entire birth population is not particularly large. The most important thing is one child with two children. After the previous release of the second child policy, the expectation is lower than before, so Let go of the third child.

中国新闻周刊：今年七普数据也公布了，你觉得按照现在的人口增长趋势，近两年会是人口峰值吗？

China News Weekly: This year's 7th Census data has also been released. Do you think that according to the current population growth trend, will the population peak in the past two years?

陆杰华：假如今年死亡率超过出生率，那可能这个峰值就下去了，但是明年还能不能回来，还有待观察。比如，明年三孩要出生了，会不会抵消一些死亡率，可能会有一些波动吧。

Lu Jiehua: If the death rate this year exceeds the birth rate, then this peak may go down, but it remains to be seen whether it will return next year. For example, next year the third child is about to be born, will it offset some of the death rate? There may be some fluctuations.

中国新闻周刊：现在我国的年龄结构是什么情况？

China News Weekly: What is the current age structure of our country?

陆杰华：底部在收缩，顶部在增长，中间靠近顶部的中年劳动力部分也在老化。这个变化趋势决定了我们现在（人口）保持正增长的难度也是比较大的，因为整个年龄结构在老化。

Lu Jiehua: The bottom is shrinking, the top is growing, and the middle-aged labor force near the top is also aging. This changing trend determines that it is relatively difficult for us (population) to maintain positive growth, because the entire age structure is aging.

中国新闻周刊：这个结构形态会对经济和社会产生什么影响？

China News Weekly: What impact will this structural form have on the economy and society?

陆杰华：人口无论是总量还是结构对社会经济发展都是基础和全局战略性的变量。人口是个慢变量，实际上会作为一个长周期影响几十年。对人口红利、养老金、养老照料等方面都会带来持续性的挑战。

Lu Jiehua: Both the total population and the structure of the population are fundamental and overall strategic variables for social and economic development. Population is a slow variable, and it will actually affect several decades as a long period. It will bring continuous challenges to demographic dividends, pensions, and old-age care.

数量型转为质量型

Quantitative to qualitative

中国新闻周刊：在你看来，人口红利的流失是一个什么性质的问题？

China News Weekly: In your opinion, what is the nature of the drain on the demographic dividend?

陆杰华：是一个挑战。过去依靠数量型的人口红利，将来如果这种红利消失，需要依靠质量型。现在数量型的人口红利并没有完全消失，只是在走向下行，劳动力人口还是相对比较多的，只是和十几二十年前相比，规模和比例下降了。一方面可以通过延迟退休，保证这个比例和规模，另一方面可以提高劳动效率，提高人力资本，来获取第二次人口红利。

Lu Jiehua: It's a challenge. In the past, it relied on a quantitative demographic dividend. If this dividend disappears in the future, it will need to rely on a quality dividend. The current quantitative demographic dividend has not completely disappeared. It is just going downward. The labor force is still relatively large. It is just that the scale and proportion have declined compared with a dozen or twenty years ago. On the one hand, it is possible to delay retirement to ensure this proportion and scale, on the other hand, it can improve labor efficiency and human capital to obtain the second demographic dividend.

从人口变化的规律来说，尽可能延缓人口负增长到来的时间，尽量延长人口红利的时间，我们可以通过一些制度安排来借鉴其他国家人口负增长所带来的一些成功经验和失败教训，我们避免走弯路，使我们即使负增长也可以保持社会经济的可持续发展。

From the perspective of the law of population change, delay the arrival of negative population growth as much as possible, and extend the time of demographic dividend as much as possible. We can use some institutional arrangements to learn from some successful experiences and failure lessons brought by negative population growth in other countries. Detours will enable us to maintain sustainable social and economic development even with negative growth.

中国新闻周刊：有专家认为应全面放开，有的认为应缓步放开，你怎么看？

China News Weekly: Some experts believe that it should be fully liberalized, and some believe that it should be liberalized slowly. What do you think?

陆杰华：发展规律上是全面放开更好一些，如果全面放开效果还是不行，那至少下降的趋势能减缓，然后再用其他措施来应对生育率过低或者负增长的变化。现在逐步放开可能是考虑到中国人口这么多，可能担心潜在问题，所以也是一个逐步优化生育政策的过程，但是如果未来真的面临负增长，那肯定还是要做进一步调整。

Lu Jiehua: The law of development is that full liberalization is better. If full liberalization still does not work, at least the downward trend can be slowed, and then other measures can be used to cope with changes in the fertility rate that is too low or negative growth. The gradual liberalization may be due to the fact that China’s population is so large and may be worried about potential problems, so it is also a process of gradual optimization of the fertility policy, but if the future really faces negative growth, then further adjustments must be made.

From website: http://baijiahao.baidu.com/