负利率到底是不是你翻身的机会？

Is negative interest rate a chance for you to stand up?

 

负利率的意思是利率是负的，你去银行存一笔钱，不但不给你利息，还得收管理费，你肯定纳闷了，那我有病啊去存钱，堆家里库房和床底下不就行了？

Negative interest rate means that the interest rate is negative. You go to the bank to deposit a sum of money. Not only will you not pay you interest, but you will also have to charge management fees. You must be wondering, then if I am sick, go and save money. That's it?

事实上确实也是这样的，当初日本央行宣布进入负利率时代后，日本社会最明显的反映是保险箱买断货，浙江几个搞保险箱的企业乐得合不拢嘴。但是有些大户是跑不掉的，比如保险和养老金，他们就跟几只大虫子似的，只能是被迫继续混下去。

In fact, this is indeed the case. After the Bank of Japan announced that it had entered the era of negative interest rates, the most obvious reaction in Japanese society was that safes were bought out. Several companies engaged in safes in Zhejiang were happy from ear to ear. But some big players can't escape, such as insurance and pensions, they are like a few big bugs, they can only be forced to continue mixing.

当然了，真实操办负利率，情况还要复杂那么一丢丢，比如普通老百姓的账户，一般你存10000再过一年可能给你10001，象征性地给点。那些大户，比如有一个亿的财富，可能存一年就要变成九千九百万了。

Of course, if you actually manage negative interest rates, the situation is even more complicated. For example, for ordinary people's accounts, generally you may give you 1,0001 after depositing 10,000 in a year, which is a symbolic point. Those big households, for example, have a fortune of one hundred million, and they may become ninety-nine million in one year.

这里就有个问题，为啥这个世界上会有负利率存在呢？咱们做一个思想实验，大家就知道了。比如你家有个银行，市场上到处是一些年收益率高达10%的优质项目，你最着急的事情是啥？ 肯定是赶紧出门贴个海报，上边写上“高收益理财产品，先来先得，过期不候”，然后不惜以5%的利率吸储，然后再去投资赚钱吃差价。

Here is a question, why is there a negative interest rate in this world? Let's do a thought experiment, and everyone will know. For example, if you have a bank, the market is full of high-quality projects with an annual return rate of as high as 10%. What is the most anxious thing for you? I must go out and put up a poster with the words "high-yield wealth management products, first come first served, no expiration", and then they will not hesitate to absorb savings at a 5% interest rate, and then invest to make money and pay the difference.

现在无利不起早的银行都不想吸储了，说明啥？说明它手里已经没有可投资的项目了。你把钱存到银行，明年拿利息，银行没有项目可投资，相当于那部分利息是它倒贴给你的，它能干？利率和经济增长是强相关的，经济不好的时候，没啥可投资项目，利率会非常非常低，如果经济增速跌倒古代那种水平，利率也会变成0。

Now the banks that are unprofitable and can't afford it don't want to absorb deposits anymore. What does it mean? It shows that it has no investment projects in its hands. You deposit the money in the bank and take interest next year. The bank has no projects to invest in. It is equivalent to that part of the interest is paid back to you. Is it capable? Interest rates and economic growth are strongly correlated. When the economy is bad, there are no investment projects, and the interest rate will be very, very low. If the economic growth rate drops to the ancient level, the interest rate will also become zero.

如果还不如古代，比如一个社会出现了急速人口老龄化，那可能就会像日本一样，或者技术储备耗尽，比如欧洲，那就得玩负利率。而且关于经济，还有一个简单的逻辑，类似左手右手，你们公司今天生产出两个手机来，那接下来这段时间一定要卖掉，如果卖不出去，那就是过剩产能，你们厂子可能就要裁员。

If it is not as good as in ancient times, for example, a society is experiencing rapid population aging, it may be like Japan, or its technical reserves may be exhausted, such as Europe, and then it will have to play with negative interest rates. And regarding the economy, there is a simple logic, similar to the left-handed and the right-handed. Your company produces two mobile phones today, so you must sell them during the next period of time. If you can’t sell them, it’s excess production capacity. To lay off staff.

日本央行当初搞负利率，有个很大的期望，指望通过负利率搞出2%的通货膨胀来。说到这里大家可能纳闷了，日本人有病吧，竟然爱通胀？当然不是了，温和通货膨胀并不可怕，至少说明大家有意愿买东西，最怕的事情就是大家谁都不消费，交易停摆了，整个市场死气沉沉，大家一起完蛋。

The Bank of Japan had a big expectation when it started with negative interest rates. It hoped to bring about 2% inflation through negative interest rates. Speaking of this, everyone may be wondering, are Japanese people sick, and love inflation? Of course not. Mild inflation is not terrible. At least it shows that everyone is willing to buy things. The most feared thing is that no one consumes, the transaction is closed, the whole market is lifeless, and everyone is finished together.

 

From website：https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/