什么是顺周期板块？顺周期的投资逻辑是什么？

What is a procyclical plate? What is the pro cyclical investment logic?

 

1、顺周期是和弱周期相对的一个词，指的是跟随经济周期一起同向波动的那些板块，比如银行、煤炭、基建等等。

Procyclical is a term that is opposite to weak cycle. It refers to those sectors that fluctuate in the same direction following the economic cycle, such as banks, coal, infrastructure, etc.

2、当下顺周期的投资逻辑主要还是因为疫情所导致的，2020年这场新冠疫情对全球经济都造成了巨大的负面影响，各国经济纷纷大幅下滑。

The current procyclical investment logic is mainly caused by the epidemic. The new crown epidemic in 2020 has caused a huge negative impact on the global economy, and the economies of various countries have fallen sharply.

3、而疫情控制后经济恢复将成为全球的首要任务，而这一目标将主要通过大基建来实现，基建的复苏又会带动上游资源比如铜铝、钢铁、煤炭等等的需求，一环扣一环，之前受压制的板块会逐一爆发。

After the epidemic is controlled, economic recovery will become the world's top priority, and this goal will be achieved mainly through large infrastructure. The recovery of infrastructure will in turn drive the demand for upstream resources such as copper, aluminum, steel, coal, etc. First, the previously suppressed sectors will explode one by one.

4、其实之前大炒的汽车、家电以及地产后周期也属于顺周期方向，这个逻辑很早就开始动了，现在只不过是传递到了更低估的资源类板块。

In fact, the post-cycle of automobiles, home appliances, and real estate that were heavily speculated in the past also belong to the pro-cyclical direction. This logic started to move very early, but now it is only passed to the lower-valued resource sector.

5、但是需要注意，由于疫苗现在还未大规模使用，因此上述逻辑的演化存在一定的不确定性，不可盲目追高。

However, it should be noted that since vaccines have not yet been used on a large scale, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the evolution of the above logic and cannot be blindly pursued.

 

Author: Tianshangren

From website: https://www.zhihu.com/